The crypto market has seen mixed signals in the past 24 hours, with broad indexes moving higher even as short-term traders remain cautious.
Broader Market Gains
The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks the largest and most liquid digital assets, climbed 3.2%, while the CoinDesk 80 Index, covering a wide range of smaller tokens, advanced 4%. These gains reflect improved sentiment across the altcoin space.
Bitcoin’s 200-Day Moving Average Signals Strength
Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains firmly bullish. Its 200-day moving average — a widely followed technical indicator that smooths price action over six months — has now crossed above $100,000. Since late April, BTC has consistently traded above this level, underscoring the strength of its long-term uptrend.
Derivatives Show Short-Term Uncertainty
While the bigger picture looks strong, derivatives data points to near-term caution:
Open Interest (OI): BTC OI slipped to $30.3 billion, down from the record $32.6B, showing leveraged traders are trimming risk.
Options Market:
The 25-delta skew turned negative, meaning traders are paying premiums for puts (downside protection) over calls.
Short-term sentiment appears bearish, but long-term volatility expectations remain elevated.
Funding Rates: After briefly turning negative on Binance (-0.39%), BTC funding rates rebounded to 8–10% annualized, showing renewed support from bullish traders.
Heavy Liquidations in the Market
According to Coinglass, about $266 million in positions were liquidated within 24 hours:
58% were shorts, showing many traders betting against the market got caught off guard.
By tokens: ETH ($99M), BTC ($47M), and SOL ($20M) led in notional liquidations.
Binance’s liquidation heatmap suggests $111,593 is a key resistance level to monitor for BTC in case of a price spike.
Outlook
Long-term trend: Bitcoin’s position above the 200-day moving average keeps the broader bullish case intact.
Short-term sentiment: Traders remain defensive, with options and OI showing caution.
Market dynamic: Heavy short liquidations may fuel a short-term rebound, especially if BTC pushes past resistance.
